Huckabee is Still a Wildcard

11 12 2007

CNN is reporting that if the surging Mike Huckabee won the GOP Presidential nomination, he would still lose by double digit percentage points to Sens. Clinton, Obama, or Edwards.

In head-to-head matchups — the first to include Huckabee — the former Arkansas governor loses to Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York by 10 percentage points (54 percent to 44 percent), to Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois by 15 points (55 percent to 40 percent) and to former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina by 25 points (60 percent to 35 percent).

Democrats, however, should not take much solace in these numbers, considering how the former Arkansas Governor spike in support occurred just as voters are learning more about him. And it seems as if the more they learn about him, the more they like him.

A few months ago, Huckabee barely registered any support in the national or early primary state polls and only raised $1 million between July 1st and September 30th. But now he is at 21 percent nationally, eclipsed Romney in Iowa for the lead, and already raised more than a million dollars in the first few days of November alone. And he achieved all of this despite having no real national network other than his fawning and increasingly motivated conservative Christian base. More importantly, his negatives are only at 16 percent, which means he could potentially amass enough support from voters that are still shopping around or willing to switch camps and become a formidable candidate.

Obviously, none of this means he will leap frog to the nomination and breeze through the general, but it does suggest that he will be far more formidable than the new CNN poll numbers indicate.

Any candidate that could go from nothing to something as a momentum candidate in just 3 months, especially with the general election less than a year from now, should make all Dems nervous. Or maybe I am just overthinking this. After all, people could learn to dislike him as they learn more about him.

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One response

11 12 2007

well the thing i was thinking about today was that if all the critics have on huckabee (really have on him, at least)… is the 1992 comment about AIDS and the Wayne Dumond case… then it is really good to go ahead and knock them out now… plus aren’t all politicians going to perish by these standards?

The democrats will have much to worry about Huckabee wins the nomination. Also, this is the first time Huckabee has been truly measured against Hillary and Obama.

I wonder why Edwards lead is much greater than the other two…. likeability??

Thanks for your thoughts.

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