Gallup: Obama Considered the Most Electable Candidate

20 12 2007

Electability is an elusive quality. But people seem to know it when they see it even if it’s personified by a skinny black guy with a funny name. Well, at least that’s what Gallup seems to be telling us in the results of their new poll.

According to the Associated Press video below, in a survey of registered voters, Obama not only convincingly beats each of the top Republican candidates in head to head match-ups, including Mike Huckabee, Rudy Guiliani, and Mitt Romney, but also by greater margins than does Senator Hillary Clinton.

Interestingly enough, in a number of separate polls, Senator Clinton is still leading among all likely Democratic voters by a commanding 18 percentage points. According to Rasmussem, Madame Inevitable leads all Dems with 42%, while Barack Obama gets a respectable 24% and John Edwards hustled his way in with 15%.

Perhaps, I am jumping the gun here, but if Hillary still leads nationally among all likely Democratic voters, the new Gallup results must mean more Republicans and Independents are willing to vote for Sen. Obama than Sen. Clinton. I find even contemplating such a possibility astounding.

Now, while some Democrats might find a lot of encouraging news in these poll results, many of them should note no one has seen a real Huckabee reach his ceiling yet. As I noted in a previous post:

A few months ago, Huckabee barely registered any support in the national or early primary state polls and only raised $1 million between July 1st and September 30th. But now he is at 21 percent nationally, eclipsed Romney in Iowa for the lead, and already raised more than a million dollars in the first few days of November alone. And he achieved all of this despite having no real national network other than his fawning and increasingly motivated conservative Christian base. More importantly, his negatives are only at 16 percent, which means he could potentially amass enough support from voters that are still shopping around or willing to switch camps and become a formidable candidate.

I still think that that’s true. But these results at least suggest that even if the Huckaboon does not plateau anytime soon, Obama would still be the favorite, especially among moderates and independents.

(H/T: Think on These Things.)

Update: See an echo of the same theme written in this post here.

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